Indications that Election is Headed
for Minority Government
According to wisdom among the people, Ontario elects the next government and Quebec decides whether it is a majority or minority government.
Too Close to Call is a website that claims to provide a more accurate and unbiased approach to polling and the significance of changes in polling stats. It predicts that growth in support for the Bloc Québécois in Quebec may indicate the death of Liberal hopes for a majority government. The website says:
“The post-debate surge for the Bloc appears to be real. All of a sudden, Yves-François Blanchet is back over 30 seats and can even dream of 40.”
It says that a combination of polls show that while the Trudeau Liberals are gaining elsewhere, “they are dropping too fast in Quebec to secure a majority.” It indicates as well that a Conservative majority is unlikely.
The website particularly highlights that the post-debate support for the Bloc has increased by 95 per cent, going from single digits to a range of 16 per cent to 44 per cent. “Urban ridings like Hochelaga are now back with the Bloc,” it says.
The website concludes:
“The chances of a majority are back down around 15 per cent. Some polls (Mainstreet) do have the Liberals close to it but others (and the average) show this party quite far from the magic number of 170. Right now, the Liberals would be losing seats in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. The gains they could make in the Prairies and BC don’t compensate. And with Quebec not ‘cooperating’ anymore, it’s really hard to see where the remaining 19 seats could come from. Short of a polling error of course.”
The prediction of Quebec blocking a Liberal majority was also highlighted by the September 12 edition of CBC Radio’s Cross Country Checkup. Commentators noted that one of the factors that indicate how well the Bloc is doing is found in the number of voters outside of Quebec who chose the Bloc when asked how they will vote after watching the leaders’ debate. Apparently, after the September 8 Leaders’ Debate, several voters outside of Quebec picked the Bloc.