Update on Global Pandemic for Week Ending March 28

The situation facing humanity from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to develop rapidly, as governments around the world and the World Health Organization (WHO) strive to contain the outbreak. About one third of the world's population is said to be currently living under lockdown due to the coronavirus.

WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continues to give daily briefings to provide an overview of the global situation. In them, he repeatedly stresses the need for international cooperation and solidarity to overcome the pandemic.

Dr. Tedros reported on March 27 of a briefing with 50 health ministers where China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore shared their experiences from fighting the pandemic. He noted that "Several common themes emerged about what has worked: the need for early detection and isolation of confirmed cases; identification, follow-up and quarantine of contacts; the need to optimize care; and the need to communicate to build trust and engage communities in the fight." Also highlighted in this briefing were several common challenges, most notably the chronic global shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE).

Regarding the global PPE shortage, Dr. Tedros informed that the WHO "has shipped almost 2 million individual items of protective gear to 74 countries that need it most, and we're preparing to send a similar amount to a further 60 countries." He stressed that "This problem can only be solved with international cooperation and international solidarity. When health workers are at risk, we're all at risk. Health workers in low- and middle-income countries deserve the same protection as those in the wealthiest countries."

He also pointed out that to support the WHO's call for "all countries to conduct aggressive case-finding and testing, we're also working urgently to massively increase the production and capacity for testing around the world."

Regarding treatment and a possible vaccine for COVID-19, Dr. Tedros stated that, "One of the most important areas of international cooperation is research and development.

"A vaccine is still at least 12 to 18 months away. In the meantime, we recognize that there is an urgent need for therapeutics to treat patients and save lives.

"Today we are delighted to announce that in Norway and Spain, the first patients will shortly be enrolled in the Solidarity Trial, which will compare the safety and effectiveness of four different drugs or drug combinations against COVID-19. This is a historic trial which will dramatically cut the time needed to generate robust evidence about what drugs work.

"More than 45 countries are contributing to the trial, and more have expressed interest. The more countries who join the trial, the faster we will have results."

Dr. Tedros also explained that the WHO is facilitating training for health care workers, noting that "More than 1 million health workers have been trained through our courses on OpenWHO.org. We will continue to train more."

In his March 25 briefing, Dr. Tedros put the various social isolation measures in context of the overall fight to overcome the pandemic. He explained, "Asking people to stay at home and shutting down population movement is buying time and reducing the pressure on health systems. But on their own, these measures will not extinguish epidemics. The point of these actions is to enable the more precise and targeted measures that are needed to stop transmission and save lives.

"We call on all countries who have introduced so-called 'lockdown' measures to use this time to attack the virus. You have created a second window of opportunity. The question is, how will you use it?

"There are six key actions that we recommend. First, expand, train and deploy your health care and public health workforce; second, implement a system to find every suspected case at community level; third, ramp up the production, capacity and availability of testing; fourth, identify, adapt and equip facilities you will use to treat and isolate patients; fifth, develop a clear plan and process to quarantine contacts; and sixth, refocus the whole of government on suppressing and controlling COVID-19.

"These measures are the best way to suppress and stop transmission, so that when restrictions are lifted, the virus doesn't resurge. The last thing any country needs is to open schools and businesses, only to be forced to close them again because of a resurgence.

"Aggressive measures to find, isolate, test, treat and trace are not only the best and fastest way out of extreme social and economic restrictions -- they're also the best way to prevent them."

Number of Cases Worldwide

As of March 28, 8:05 pm GMT, the worldwide statistics for COVID-19 pandemic as reported by Worldometer were:

Total reported cases: 656,763

- 484,946 active cases

- 171,817 closed cases

Deaths: 30,398

Recovered: 141,419

There were 60,451 new cases from March 27 to 28.

The disease has now been reported in 199 countries and territories. Of these, 98 have under 100 cases.

This compares to figures from eight days earlier on March 20 of 266,208 reported cases (164,418 active; 101,790 closed); 11,187 deaths; 90,603 recovered; 21,314 new cases over the previous day; in 160 countries.

The five countries with the highest number of cases on March 28 were:

USA: 119,682 (114,465 active; 3,229 recovered; 1,988 deaths)
Italy: 92,472 (70,065 active; 12,384 recovered; 10,023 deaths)
China: 81,394 (3,128 active; 74,971 recovered; 3,295 deaths)
Spain: 72,248 (54,151 active; 12,285 recovered; 5,812 deaths)
Germany: 57,695 (48,784 active; 8,481 recovered; 430 deaths)

Compared to a week earlier, the most drastic change is that the U.S. is now the country with the highest number of reported cases. That said, Europe continues to be the epicentre of the pandemic, and per capita has the highest number of cases. Of the top 20 countries with the highest number of reported cases, 11 are in Europe. It is also the continent with the highest number of deaths, with 20,059, Agence France Pressse reports. Notably, Iran, which on March 20 had the fourth highest number of reported cases with 19,644, as of March 28 had 35,408, for the seventh highest total.

Cases in Selected Countries by Region

In Europe on March 28, the five countries with the highest number of reported cases were:

Italy: 92,472 (70,065 active; 12,384 recovered; 10,023 deaths)
Spain: 72,248 (54,151 active; 12,285 recovered; 5,812 deaths)
Germany: 57,695 (48,784 active; 8,481 recovered; 430 deaths)
France: 37,575 (29,561 active; 5,700 recovered; 2,314 deaths)
UK: 17,089 (15,935 active; 135 recovered; 1,019 deaths)

In these five countries alone, the total number of cases increased by more than 150,000 in the past week. Of these, the UK had the fastest rate of increase, more than quadrupling the total number of cases in the past week. Italy has the highest number of deaths worldwide from COVID-19 at 10,023 as of March 28, reporting 889 deaths that day alone. Spain has the second highest at 5,812, reporting 832 deaths on March 28.

Euractiv reports that in Italy: "The northern region of Lombardy, by far the hardest-hit, showed a steep decline in the number of deaths and new infections on [March 25], raising hopes that the epidemic may be slowing at its original epicentre.

"However, optimism was tempered by warnings from the south, where contagion and deaths are far less widespread but are rising steadily, and could overwhelm a health service which is much less well equipped than in the rich north."

Various measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 remain in place throughout Europe. Euractiv reports that Belgium has extended its lockdown until April 19; Spain has extended its "state of alarm" until April 11; Hungary has announced a curfew; and France has extended its lockdown until April 15.

In Eurasia:

Turkey: 7,402 (7,224 active; 108 deaths)
Russia: 1,264 (1,211 active; 49 recovered; 4 deaths)
Armenia: 407 (376 active; 30 recovered; 1 death)
Kazakhstan: 228 (211 active; 16 recovered; 1 death)
Azerbajian: 182 (36 active; 7 recovered; 1 death)

Since March 20, these countries experienced a four to five-fold increase in the total number of cases, except Turkey which increased almost 20-fold from 359 cases.

Russia will close its borders on March 30 in an attempt to slow the pandemic's spread, according to a government decree.

In West Asia:

Iran: 35,408 (21,212 active; 11,679 recovered; 2,517 deaths)
Israel: 3,619 (3,518 active; 89 recovered; 12 deaths)
Saudi Arabia: 1,203 (1,162 active; 37 recovered; 4 deaths)
Qatar: 590 (544 active; 45 recovered; 1 death)
Iraq: 506 (333 active; 131 recovered; 42 deaths)

The total number of cases in Iran increased by 15,764 since March 20. PressTV reported that on March 26, the U.S. imposed new sanctions against 20 companies, officials and individuals in Iran and Iraq.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry senior official reported on March 28 that the U.S., through its sanctions regime, continues to block Iranian assets needed to purchase medicines and equipment to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The official made the remarks in response to some reports claiming that the U.S. had granted waivers to some countries allowing them to release frozen Iranian assets to help Tehran buy urgent medical supplies, PressTV reports.

"The efforts of some countries have led to the release of some of the Iranian central bank's money," a source told the Middle East Eye on March 27. "Those countries will receive a sanctions waiver [for releasing Iran's frozen assets], this has been granted and we are following this issue," the source added.

Earlier in the week, eight countries sent a letter to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, warning about the negative impacts of unilateral sanctions on international anti-coronavirus efforts. In the joint letter obtained, the ambassadors of China, Cuba, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Iran, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria and Venezuela urged the Secretary General to "reject the politicization of such a pandemic."

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abbas Mousavi on March 28 referred to this action, saying the world should stand against U.S. unilateralism and its violation of international regulations.

"Unfortunately, the Americans have found the courage during the recent years to impose their own internal regulations and cruel sanctions on other countries," Mousavi said in an interview with the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB). He expressed hope that countries facing U.S. sanctions and those independent states that oppose the U.S. unilateralism would form a united body and adopt measures to resist U.S. dictate.

In sharp contrast to the inhuman U.S. sanctions, Mousavi said more than 30 countries and international organizations have so far dispatched health and medical aid to Iran to help the country contain the coronavirus.

In South Asia:

Pakistan: 1,495 (1,454 active; 29 recovered; 12 deaths)
India: 933 (829 active; 84 recovered; 20 deaths)
Sri Lanka: 113 (103 active; 9 recovered; 1 death)
Afghanistan: 110 (104 active; 2 recovered; 4 deaths)
Bangladesh: 48 (28 active; 15 recovered; 5 deaths)

Regarding the disproportionately low number of COVID-19 cases in India, The Wire Science provides some perspective based on the low rate of testing:

"As public health experts continue to wonder why India has such low rates of diagnostic tests for COVID-19 per capita, a recently published study by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) scientists indicates the council may have ignored its own analysis on the need for more aggressive testing.

"A mathematical model prepared by ICMR scientists almost two months ago suggested that simply isolating symptomatic international air passengers could not have helped delay a COVID-19 epidemic in India.

"In the model, published in a paper this month, scientists from the ICMR compared a scenario of 'no airport screening' with three other scenarios in which airport screening detected all symptomatic cases. The researchers found that even flawless screening couldn't have delayed a COVID-19 epidemic in India by more than 2.9 days because such screening wouldn't capture infectious people who weren't yet showing any symptoms (a.k.a. pre-symptomatic cases).

"The model also suggested that the only strategy that could appreciably 'flatten the curve' for India would be extensive testing of symptomatic people with no travel history, allowing up to 50% of all COVID-19 infections to be identified.

"These findings raise serious questions about ICMR's reluctance to widen testing beyond people with a travel history until only last weekend.

"Jacob John, a professor of community medicine at Vellore's Christian Medical College, said, 'I believe the testing of only travel-related cases was a serious error.' As of March 17, ICMR had tested only 500 community cases of severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). The agency changed its strategy only on March 20, to include all SARI and pneumonia cases.

"Further, after WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus asked all countries to 'test, test, test.' ICMR officials claimed to have written to WHO's India office that Ghebreyesus's statement was unwarranted because it didn't apply to countries like India with no evidence of community transmission.

"When asked why ICMR waited so long to widen community testing, despite the agency's own model suggesting otherwise, the paper's coauthor and epidemiologist Tarun Bhatnagar said logistical constraints had played a part. 'This is not Singapore or South Korea, which are like a single Indian state. We have to take a balanced approach to see that we are using our resources in an optimal manner,' he told The Wire Science.

"However, by ICMR's own admission, India had ample capacity to conduct tests for COVID-19, and so a shortage wasn't the cause for the slow ramp-up. Raman Gangakhedkar, another coauthor of the paper, has said previously that ICMR was only using 10% of its testing capacity. The reason it wasn't expanding further, he explained, was because there was no evidence of community transmission.

"This conclusion was in turn seemingly based on negative test results from 500 SARI samples -- a sample size that other experts have called inadequate for a country of over 1.3 billion people."

A TML Weekly reader reports:

"India has been put under a 21-day lockdown by the government in the name of stopping community transmissions. But this causes great hardship to India's 200 million daily wage earners, 50 million of whom work in the building and construction industry. Many companies have laid them off. Close to 200 million registered shopkeepers have been shut down and millions of unregistered small businesses have been forced to close. More than 175 million school children are not getting their midday meal, which for a great many of them  is their only meal.

"Videos show  labourers walking 60 to 70 miles to their homes in villages since they have been let go. Many from Bihar were sent home earlier by train but many are stuck without shelter, food and water. The police are goondas -- thugs -- who are beating up people who come out into the streets without  surgical masks. Thousands of workers can be seen crowded at bus stations while protective gear is not even available to doctors and other health workers. As in all crises, the ruling elites, religious predators, politicians and all kinds of characters are selling snake oil, cow urine and other such things as a cure for the coronavirus. Health experts and doctors are warning people against such scammers. The ruling elite of India, Tata, Ambani, Adani and others are using this crisis to steal from the public funds. The central government has announced a hefty package for them."

In Southeast Asia:

Malaysia: 2,320 (1,973 active; 320 recovered; 27 deaths)
Thailand: 1,245 (1,140 active; 42 recovered; 1 death)
Indonesia: 1,155 (944 active; 109 recovered; 102 deaths)
Philippines: 1,075 (972 active; 35 recovered; 68 deaths)
Singapore: 802 (588 active; 212 recovered; 2)

In this region, cases for Malaysia and Singapore roughly doubled, while those in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines increased by roughly three to four times, with the overall numbers being quite low relative to other regions of the world.

In East Asia:

China: 81,439 (2,691 active; 78,139 recovered; 3,300 deaths)
South Korea: 9,487 (4,523 active; 4,820 recovered; 144 deaths)
Japan: 1,693 (1,217 active; 476 recovered; 52 deaths)
Taiwan: 283 (242 active; 39 recovered; 2 deaths)

In this region, the spread of coronavirus has been relatively low since March 20. Cases in Taiwan and Japan roughly doubled, cases in China increased by less than 500, while south Korea saw an increase of about 800 new cases.

In North America:

USA: 123,578 (118,127 active; 3,231 recovered; 2,220 deaths)
Canada: 5,655 (5,199 active; 516 recovered; 60 deaths)
Mexico: 717 (701 active; 4 recovered; 12 deaths)

The number of cases in Canada increased at a rate of about six times since March 20, while cases in Mexico went up by about four times.

The U.S. saw the biggest increase worldwide, going up from 16,517 cases, or an increase of 7.5 times that of the number of cases on March 20. From March 20 to 21, the number of cases increased by roughly 5,000. From March 27 to 28, the number of cases increased by almost 20,000. The main factor responsible for the worsening of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. is the overall anti-social offensive and neo-liberal wrecking carried out by the ruling circles. This is especially notable in the health care sector at this time, which is mostly privatized, as part of an overall economy that is fundamentally organized to serve supranational interests, narrow business interests and those with wealth, with everyone else being left to fend for themselves. The situation has been further aggravated by the disinformation about the pandemic and measures to combat it originating from within the Trump administration, that is serving to disarm and disorganize the people. This is a sharp contrast to the heroic efforts of health care and public sector workers, as well as the initiatives of people from all walks of life who are going all out to stay informed and organize themselves to look after one another and keep the epidemic in check. While these are not new features of the political and economic arrangements in the U.S., the coronavirus epidemic has brought this contradiction to the fore.

Regarding the number of cases by state, New York has highest number, with 53,393 cases as of March 28, while New Jersey had the second highest with 11,124.

In Central America and the Caribbean:

Panama: 901 (880 active; 4 recovered; 17 deaths)
Dominican Republic: 708 (677 active; 12 recovered; 28 deaths)
Costa Rica: 295 (290 active; 3 recovered; 2 deaths)
Cuba: 119 (112 active; 4 recovered; 3 deaths)
Jamaica: 30 (27 active; 2 recovered; 1 death)

In South America:

Brazil: 3,904 (3,784 active; 6 recovered; 114 deaths)
Chile: 1909 (1,827 active; 75 recovered; 7 deaths)
Ecuador: 1,853 (1,807 active; 3 recovered; 46 deaths)
Argentina: 745 (654 active; 72 recovered; 19 deaths)
Peru: 671 (619 active; 16 revovered; 16 deaths)

A notable example from the region is Venezuela, which as of March 28 has a relatively low number of cases with 119 (39 recovered; 2 deaths). It is is one of a number of countries that has begun using rapid tests for COVID-19 that can be applied outside health care settings and produce results in minutes, a tremendous advantage over countries like Canada where people approved for testing still have to wait up to a week for results. Venezuela recently received 500,000 rapid tests from China along with other supplies. Venezuela also massively surveyed its population through the Homeland card portal and has health care teams carrying out follow-up visits to almost 62,000 people. They have so far found over 3,600 people with cold or flu-like symptoms who are being given rapid tests to see if they have the virus.

In Africa:

South Africa: 1,187 (1,155 active; 31 recovered; 1 death)
Egypt: 576 (419 active; 121 recovered; 36 deaths)
Algeria: 454 (394 active; 31 recovered; 29 deaths)
Morocco: 402 (364 active; 13 recovered; 25 deaths)
Burkina Faso: 207 (173 active; 23 recovered; 11 deaths)

A recent report from Al Jazeera highlights a particular concern for Africa, namely the potential for the COVID-19 pandemic to hit refugee camps across the continent. The article states:

"As the rapidly spreading virus gains ground, aid groups warn of the potentially disastrous consequences of a major outbreak of COVID-19 [...] in places where health care systems are already strained and not easily accessible to large segments of the population.

"Lack of funding and years of fighting have gutted critical infrastructure in several parts of the continent, which could leave many countries unable to respond to a surge in infections, said Crystal Ashley Wells, regional spokeswoman for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Nairobi.

"For example, in South Sudan, where more than 1.6 million people are internally displaced, it often takes people hours, even days, to reach healthcare facilities, and the leading cause of death is 'often preventable: treatable diseases like malaria and diarrhea,' Wells told Al Jazeera.

"'We have surgical wards right now that are full of patients recovering from gunshot wounds,' she said. 'Then you have this health care system that has suffered from decades of under-investment and then conflict that has basically left people with little health care at best.'

"Some of the internally displaced in South Sudan have found refuge in overcrowded camps inside UN peacekeeping bases.

"'They're literally living surrounded by walls and barbed wire' in tents that are only inches apart, Wells said.

[...]

"A country that is of particular concern is Burkina Faso, which has registered the most confirmed cases in West Africa [...] An impoverished country of some 20 million people, Burkina Faso has been gripped by an escalating and complex conflict that has caused 'explosive displacement' over the past year, according to Wells.

"'There are about 765,000 people displaced,' she said. 'It's up by more than 1,200 percent since 2019 [...] and it's expected to continue to rise. Security and access to these communities is also really challenging for humanitarian workers.'

In a recent interview with RFI, UN Secretary General António Guterres said he "fears 'millions and millions' of coronavirus cases in Africa, where the youth will not be spared. He called on wealthy countries to help the developing world, for their own sake.

"Guterres told RFI that Africa should be the priority of the international community as the continent does [not] have the resources to fight the pandemic.

"'Ninety percent of the cases are in the G20 countries which hold 80 percent of the global economy. They shouldn't be working alone, each in their corner, but in a coordinated manner to find treatments and vaccines to put at the world's disposal,' he said."

"Guterres says at least USD$3 trillion, around 10 percent of the world's GDP, is needed to slow the spread of the coronavirus for vulnerable countries in the Global South."

Neither article acknowledges the historical responsibility of the imperialist countries which invaded Africa, enriched themselves based on the enslavement and exploitation of the African peoples, and carried out coups and foreign interventions, all of which has contributed in large measure to leaving them impoverished and vulnerable to the pandemic today. 

In Oceania:

Australia: 3,635 (3,451 active; 170 recovered; 14 deaths)
New Zealand: 514 (457 active; 56 recovered; 1 death)
Guam: 56 (1 death)
French Polynesia: 34