War of Sanctions Against Iran (III)
- German Foreign Policy -
The escalation of the conflict over Iran hampers the
German
government's efforts to pursue an independent global policy, even
contrary to U.S. interests. Following U.S. President Donald
Trump's announcement [that] he would impose punitive measures on all
countries planning to purchase Iranian oil, Teheran responded by
declaring it may begin to enrich uranium again, if the partners
of the nuclear agreement continue to breach their commitments and
refuse to allow Iran to sell its goods freely. This is actually
the case, due to U.S. threats to impose punitive measures.
Berlin's efforts to salvage trade with Iran by means of a
barter-based financial vehicle does not bear fruit. Washington is
now preparing new threats against this vehicle ("INSTEX" [Instrument in
Support of Trade Exchanges]).
Despite the de facto trade
blockade in violation of the nuclear
agreement, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is demanding that
Teheran must "fully" comply with the nuclear agreement. In the
meantime, U.S. President Trump is increasing pressure with new
sanctions.
The Oil Boycott
Over the past few days, the Trump administration has
intensified its aggression against Iran in two ways. On the one
hand, it has insisted, since the beginning of the month, that all
countries, without exception, comply with the sanctions against
Teheran and cease the purchase of Iranian oil. Recently, oil
sales have comprised nearly 40 per cent of Iran's revenue. With a
total loss of its oil revenue, the country is threatened with
economic ruin. This is precisely Washington's aim, to incite
hunger revolts within the population, the overthrow of the
government and the installation of pro-U.S. forces. Whether the
Trump administration can achieve Iran's economic strangulation is
uncertain. Particularly China and Turkey have protested the U.S.
threats to punish those purchasing Iranian oil in the future.
India has clearly shown its resentment, however, has notably
begun to reduce its oil imports from Iran. In April it imported
nearly a third less than it had in March and more than half less
than its imports in March 2018. TÜPRAS, Turkey's largest refinery
operator, announced yesterday that it will reduce imports from
Iran to zero. The EU countries have already completely halted
their oil imports. How much oil Iran will be able to sell on the
"grey market" remains unclear.
The Struggle Against "INSTEX"
It is also not clear whether Germany, France, Great
Britain,
and the EU will succeed in their plans to sustain their trade
with Iran by way of the financial vehicle, "INSTEX." Until now, INSTEX
was seen as
inoperable.[1] Brussels has
announced it would
significantly increase the financial volume of this instrument
and otherwise intensify its efforts to trade with Iran.
Washington, however, is already planning to apply measures
against INSTEX. A senior official of the U.S. Department of
Finance pointed out that Iranian authorities, who cooperate with
EU countries within the INSTEX framework, do not comply with the
rules of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a Paris-based
body founded in 1989 to prevent money laundering and -- since 2001
-- also terror financing. The latter is particularly relevant,
because the Trump administration has recently classified the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC a "terror organization."
Because the IRGC maintains a huge economic empire, its
"terrorist" classification offers new options for sabotaging
trade with Iran. Every opportunity will be seized upon to halt
business with Iran, the senior official of the U.S. Department of
Finance announced.[2]
Gunboat Diplomacy
Alongside
Washington's presumption of a right to globally impose punitive
measures on those importing Iranian oil, it is now also making
military threats. In addition to the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft
carrier strike group, which was already scheduled to sail for the
Middle East, the Trump administration has now hastily dispatched
a squadron of B-52 bombers to the region under the pretext of
undefined Iranian "threats."[3]
This heightens the risks of military escalation
even more.
Western Breachers of Contract
Teheran has now reacted, not so much because Washington
is
placing it under heightened military pressure, but primarily
because the nuclear agreement has de
facto become obsolete. The
United States has officially broken it; the European countries
have, under pressure of U.S. sanctions, dramatically reduced
their trade with Iran, promised in return for the termination of
the nuclear program, and completely ceased buying Iranian oil.
Even in the cases of Russia and China, it remains unclear whether
the Trump administration's threats of sanctions can also force
sharp declines in trade. With this in mind, the Iranian
government has issued the nuclear agreement signatories a 60-day
time limit to uphold their part of the trade bargain. Now, the
government is preparing to halt its sale of excess enriched
uranium, and, in 60 days, will again begin enriching uranium,
announced Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani. "We have not
withdrawn from the nuclear agreement. We are merely exercising
our legitimate right, to respond to the breach of
contract."[4] As soon as
the parties to the agreement uphold their side of the bargain,
Iran will uphold its, announced Rouhani.
The German Dilemma
Berlin has a dilemma. The German government had backed
the
nuclear agreement, not least of all, because it held the promise
of reopening Iranian -- alongside Arab -- markets to German
industry. The Iranian markets are considered potentially one of
the most lucrative throughout the region.[5]
Recently,
in
the
dispute
over
the
Trump
administration's
breach
of
the
agreement, the German government
had taken an offensive stance in relationship to Washington,
thereby elevating the conflict to a touchstone of its claim to
global policy making "at eye-level" with Washington.[6] Since Berlin is in no position to
protect its trade with Iran, including its oil trade, against
U.S. sanctions -- German business interests in the USA are
overwhelming -- this policy is doomed to failure. Yesterday,
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas flamboyantly proclaimed, "we want to
salvage the agreement." However, Berlin is not even living up to
its own commitments to expand its economic cooperation with Iran.
All the same, Maas declares that Berlin "expects" ... "that Iran
will fully implement the agreement -- to the letter."[7] Maas did not explain why Teheran
should abide by the agreement's stipulations, when the western
powers do not.
The Next Sanctions
At the same time, the situation is getting worse.
Yesterday [May 8],
U.S. President Donald Trump announced new sanctions, under which
Iran is not supposed to export its second most important export
item -- various metals. These sanctions are supposed to apply to
all nations. Washington is seeking to speed up Iran's
strangulation. Teheran must eventually react to the economic
aggression. The nuclear agreement's complete collapse is
therefore drawing nearer. If Berlin cannot prevent this, it would
mean that its first attempt to oppose the USA on the world stage
and making its mark as a global player would have been a
failure.
Notes
1. German Foreign Policy
reported. See also "War of
Sanctions against Iran (II)," German
Foreign Policy, May 6,
2019.
2. "EU-Iran trade vehicle
unlikely to
meet anti-money-laundering norms: U.S." Francois Murphy,
reuters.com, May 7, 2019.
3. "B-52 bombers are off to
rebuff Iran
after threats to U.S. troops; DoD won't say what those were,"
Kyle Rempfer, militarytimes.com, May 8, 2019.
4. "Iran setzt Vertragspartnern
60-Tage-Frist," sueddeutsche.de, May 8, 2019.
5. German Foreign Policy
reported. See also "Competing for
Business
with Iran," German Foreign Policy,
April
29,
2016.
6. See also "Die Tauschbörse
der EU," German Foreign Policy,
September
26,
2018.
7. "Außenminister Maas zur
Wiener
Nuklearvereinbarung mit Iran," Pressemitteilung
des
Auswärtigen
Amts, Berlin, May 8, 2019.
This article was published in
Volume 49 Number 19 - May 25, 2019
Article Link:
War of Sanctions Against Iran (III) - German Foreign Policy
Website: www.cpcml.ca
Email: editor@cpcml.ca
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