United States
What to Expect with Inauguration of Donald Trump to U.S. Presidency
Demonstration in New York
City, November 11, 2024 affirms the people will continue to defend
their rights.
With the inauguration of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States on January 20, and all the developments taking place both within the United States and in the world in the run up to that event, TML is publishing a presentation on what to expect with the inauguration of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States. The presentation was delivered by Kathleen Chandler, leader of the U.S. Marxist-Leninist Organization (USMLO) at a meeting organized by the Communist Party of Canada (Marxist-Leninist) on January 4 on matters of concern at this time.
President-elect Donald Trump will take office on January 20. Already the conflicts within the ruling circles are showing themselves. While it is regularly reported that Trump won the "trifecta" for governing, meaning that those called the Republicans have the presidency and a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives, the reality is different. The parties do not operate as political parties but as mafia-like cartels, with alliances changing and factions within them voting according to the private interests they represent and their own self-interests, including future positions in the private oligopolies. Even the Republicans identify five different factions among their ranks.
This factional fighting was evident yesterday, January 3, when the new Congress was sworn in. In the House of Representatives with 435 members, the split is officially 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats, with one current vacancy as Matt Gaetz resigned. He was to be Trump's Attorney General but opposition even before the new Congress was seated was such that he was forced to withdraw. The Senate is 53 to 47.
The first act of the new House of Representatives is to elect the Speaker of the House. No actions can be taken until that is done. Mike Johnson, of Louisiana, considered one of the most conservative representatives, was the House Speaker for the last Congress and ran again for the new Congress. The vote is done by roll call, meaning each representative stands and states who they vote for. They can vote for anyone they want to, and the speaker does not even have to be a member of the House, though they always have been. A simple majority is needed, which in this case would be 218. A representative can also simply stand and say "present" without naming anyone.
Trump, who had previously threatened Johnson and opposed him, supported him for speaker in the days before the vote. Trump's incoming White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, also called members directly to whip up support for Johnson. Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief of staff also did so, saying Johnson was "the least offensive, and there is no alternative."
Even so, Johnson scrambled to get enough votes, with about a dozen holdouts. On the first round of voting Johnson did not secure the majority as all 215 of those in what we can call the Biden/Harris/Obama/Clinton factions voted for Hakim Jeffries, the minority leader, and three people from among the Republican factions voted against him. Demands were openly made for deals, such as chairmanship of important committees, like Foreign Affairs, Appropriations and the Rules committee which is in a position to block legislation from getting to the floor.
The initial vote against Johnson was a means for these various factions to show their ability to block him and signal Trump as well. While it is reported that Johnson only made "pledges," the openness of the wheeling and dealing and level of corruption is evident before Congress even begins to address legislation. As well, a number of those who voted for Johnson threatened in an open letter circulated before the vote not to support him in the future if more cuts are not made to the budget and the debt lowered and other demands that are not the same as Trump's agenda.
This Speaker election is more significant than previous fights over the Speaker which erupted after the 2022 elections and took 15 votes to resolve. Without a Speaker, the House cannot act, and Trump cannot be certified on January 6 as winner of the election. So, Trump forcefully intervened and strong-armed the two people involved to get them to change their votes. Johnson was elected on the second round of voting with the 218 votes needed, with one Republican holdout still voting no.
However, it remains clear that the factional fighting and shifting of alliances will continue. Leading up to this fight, Trump and Elon Musk intervened to make demands concerning the deal reached just hours before there would have been yet another government shutdown December 20. Trump and Musk demanded that the debt ceiling be raised as part of the deal. He intervened after a tentative deal had been reached by Johnson and others, forcing more manoeuvring. But in this case Trump and Musk lost, with close to 40 Republican representatives voting down the deal with the debt ceiling included. It had to be removed to pass a resolution that funded the government until March 14, 2025 and prevented the shutdown. People consider the budget one of the most important jobs Congress has and their repeated failure to pass it generates great anger.
The old notions that a majority by one party meant control and an easy ability to pass legislation are no longer the case, as the alliances and factions shift and so do the votes. This is also a factor increasing executive actions by the president, including greater use of police powers. Worst case scenarios also involve efforts to eliminate any role for Congress, which is already discredited, and people are angry and dissatisfied with its total dysfunction. This is especially true when it comes to budget matters and issues of war and war funding.
The debt ceiling is one example. It sets a limit to the amount of debt the U.S. government can have and thus the amount of funds it can borrow. It has particular significance to Trump as a failure to raise it would mean the government would default, greatly impacting its financial standing and credibility. It is also where the factions tend to sharply show themselves, which undermines his control. Trump is pushing to keep the U.S. dollar dominant in international trade, where the dollar is required for trade in oil, for example, and more generally as a reserve. A default weakens the dollar. Part of his threats coming into the presidency are against the BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and now Iran, Egypt and more. He said, "We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency nor back any other currency to replace the mighty U.S. dollar, or they will face 100 per cent tariffs."
The debt ceiling was reinstated January 1, after being suspended June 2, 2023. The debt is currently at just over $36.1 trillion, up from $31.4 trillion in June. Existing debt on January 1, of about $36.1 trillion, constitutes the new debt ceiling. While there are now sufficient funds to meet government payments, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders on January 3 saying that the U.S. will reach the limit sometime between January 14 and January 23. After that the Treasury Department can still take extraordinary measures to prevent a default for a few more months. Trump is demanding that Congress deal with the issue before January 20 but given the previous battle in December, that remains unclear. The Senate also has to start approving Trump's cabinet appointments, another arena of contention as the removal of Gaetz before nominations were even considered brings out.
How these battles play out and how Trump contends with them will not only show the level of factional fighting and the inability of current governing arrangements to contend with them. It will also indicate how Trump plans to break the bounds of the Constitution and Congressional authority when it comes to budgetary matters, including the debt ceiling, which could be eliminated altogether. Also keep in mind that tariffs and sanctions can be imposed by the executive without Congress, one of the reasons Trump repeatedly threatens their use.
In terms of worst case scenarios, one of the main areas Trump will use to break the bounds of the Constitution is that of immigration, including imposing mass deportations and use of the military inside the country. Both aim to lessen the role and authority of the state authorities, who it must be remembered are highly armed and have their own national guard military forces and state, county, and local police forces. Cities like New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles all have their own armies, with command centers, drones, tanks, automatic weapons etc. Confronting states on this matter and opposing the broad protests that are already occurring are means to justify use of the military inside the country and provide conditions for emergency actions like martial law or military rule in some form. Breaking the bounds of the Constitution are not to meet the needs of the present, which demand empowerment of the people, but rather to preserve the U.S. state in conditions where the existing governing arrangements have failed.
Trump has already sent his border czar, Tom Homan, to Texas and New York as part of demands for greater federal authority. Texas is being used as a model, as the governor there supports increased militarization and has already stationed Texas National Guard along the border. Texas has also offered public land for use for a detention center. Keep in mind that generally, the people Trump targets for deportation will first be detained and then deported, which means far more detention camps are needed. As well, while previously there was an agreement with Mexico to accept people being deported even if they were not Mexican nationals, the Mexican government is now saying they will no longer do so. This means that people would have to be sent to their home country, whatever that may be, which would require air transport on a massive scale. This too is where Trump could justify use of the military, not only on the border but to intervene in Mexico and force her to accept the people being deported.
His threats concerning tariffs against Mexico and Canada should be taken seriously as part of Trump's role in preserving the U.S. state and extending its domination internationally. The U.S. needs to more fully integrate Mexico under its military and war machine and Trump is using immigration and border issues to do this.
The threats are also to strengthen U.S. control over Canada, which is also evident in the current push concerning a "North American Arctic" and more generally greater control over both Mexico and Canada, their natural resources, and labour. While the U.S. has been developing this for some time, what stands out with the Trump presidency is the likelihood of increased use of the military and using border issues and immigration to justify that use, inside the country and with Mexico and Canada.
What gets left out in these calculations is the firm stand of the peoples in all three countries against these actions. For Canada and Mexico there is the striving for self-reliant economies free of the U.S. war machine and dictate. And in the U.S. too, there are demands for an anti-war, pro-social economy and government.
Demonstration against
NATO Summit in Washington, DC, July 7, 2024
Already many actions have taken place in the U.S. defending the rights of immigrants and refugees. These include demands to eliminate the main federal enforcement agency, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). In California, for example, which has both sanctuary cities as well as being a sanctuary state, mass actions occurred in December demanding that ICE not be allowed in the state and that no funds used to assist federal enforcement. Similar actions have occurred in New York City and Chicago and elsewhere. The firm stand remains that these planned deportations, detentions, separation of families, removing workers long a part of the U.S. working class and playing their militant role are Not in Our Name! Not in Our Communities!
Demonstration December
18, 2024 in New York City on International Migrants Day demands city
say No! to
Trump's plans for mass deportations.
Demonstration
to keep California a sanctuary state and block ICE and state funding
for mass detentions and deportations, Sacramento, December
2, 2024
Banner at New York City
rally November 9, 2024 following election of Trump
As part of weakening state authority, Trump has also said he will arrest local and state authorities that refuse to comply with federal authorities. He is specifically targeting sanctuary states and cities which exist across the country and reflect the strong demand of the people to respect and defend immigrant and refugee rights. These sanctuaries specifically block use of federal authorities, ICE especially, to detain people. Scenarios are already being painted of thousands of troops being used in places like New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Denver, and elsewhere to round up people branded as "criminal" or without documents, despite the sanctuary status. These are means not only to weaken state and local level laws and authority, but to provide conditions for emergency measures and greater police powers.
There are already many actions and demonstrations not only to defend the rights of immigrants and refugees, but also those in support of Palestine, against war and for the rights of workers. On January 1 New York City saw thousands demonstrate in Times Square, upholding the red line against genocide and demanding an arms embargo against Israel.
New York City,
January 1, 2025, thousands demonstrate demanding arms embargo against
Israel.
Demonstration
in support of Palestine and demanding the targeting of health care
workers be ended, January 5, 2025
Demonstrations are also occurring in Washington, DC now, calling on Congress not to certify Trump as president, saying he committed insurrection on January 6, 2021, and therefore cannot be president. These demonstrators were forced from the Capitol grounds and demonstrated instead at the Lincoln monument. And while relying on the Constitution's 14th Amendment, which elaborates this content on insurrection, they are reflective of the anger with the dysfunctional arrangements and the lack of a means to hold government to account.
Actions are also planned for Trump's inauguration on January 20. Anti-war forces have organized webinars to denounce U.S. actions in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria and will no doubt be present January 20, as will those defending immigrants, the rights to free speech and to organize.
Workers
also organized for rights in 2024 and are doing so in 2025. Five
thousand nurses and doctors in Portland, Oregon have called for a
strike on January 10. Health care workers are among those most active,
including a three-day strike by more than 50,000 in California, which
was joined by those demonstrating in support of Palestine. Ten thousand
nurses unionized in Detroit while nearly 28,000 school employees in
Virginia, a right to work – be enslaved – state
also
unionized. At the first Southern auto plant to organize in years,
Volkswagen in Chattanooga, Tennessee, 5,000 workers won a union in
April by a decisive 73 per cent. East coast port workers also went on
strike, secured a significant wage increase and more. They too, like
those on the west coast, have respected picket lines set up by those
opposing genocide in Gaza to block shipments to Israel. This will be a
tactic used in the coming year. Boeing workers also secured wage and
other gains. At Daimler Truck in North Carolina, 7,400 workers
threatened to strike and defeated tiers and won a 25 per cent increase.
There were more than 34 strikes in the manufacturing sector.
Amazon workers held an international strike in 30 countries to #MakeAmazonPay on Black Friday, in November. About 10,000 Amazon warehouse workers in New York, California, Georgia and Illinois struck during the holidays in December, demanding Amazon recognize the union and negotiate a contract for better pay, safety and working conditions. Starbucks workers also organized a strike with similar demands, with more than 5,000 people walking off the job December 24, shutting down more than 300 stores across 43 states.
Detroit nurses unionize,
November 2024
Dock workers
rally in North Bergen, New Jersey, after negotiations break down,
November 13, 2024.
Striking Boeing workers
rally, on Day 33 of their strike, October 15, 2024.
Amazon workers strike in City of
Industry, CA, December 20, 2024.
Amazon
workers strike, December 19, 2024, New York City.
After a vigorous contract campaign to strengthen organization and gain public support and a 99.5 per cent strike vote, the Association of Professional Flight Attendants representing American Airlines flight attendants secured an immediate 20 per cent pay increase, back pay from their 2019 contract expiration, and boarding pay for the first time. Usually pay only starts when the plane door closes. Southwest flight attendants represented by the Transport Workers Union Local 566 won wage gains as well and United Airlines flight attendants in the Association of Flight Attendants voted 99.9 per cent to strike and may still do so.
These struggles, the ongoing demonstrations in support of Palestine, the firm stands in defence of immigrant and refugee rights, are all indications that people in the U.S. are increasing their organized resistance and refusing to submit to U.S. plans for more war and repression. The workers are standing united and rejecting attempts to divide them on a racist basis and to line them up behind Trump and his efforts.
The broad collective consciousness among the people, including those who voted for Trump, is that existing arrangements have failed beyond repair. There is broad anger, especially with the impunity and lack of accountability and anticipation of greater repression and silencing of resistance. There is little support for the notions that the Constitution will solve problems when it has not done so for more than 200 years and is recognized as a compromise with slavery and oligopoly against democracy. For many this is bringing to the fore the need for a new constitution, one that meets the needs of the time to empower the people to govern and decide all the issues that affect them, especially these matters of war and peace and militarization of the economy and life.
Conditions are such that people are looking for alternatives, which presents an important opportunity for us to continue to target these arrangements, based on Covenant Thesis, which put in place a person of state ruling above and against the people. It is well known that government is for and by the rich, but there is a block to recognizing the need to not replicate these arrangements and put in place "better" representatives, but for new arrangements that in both form and content empower the people, something a new constitution would address. It means contending with demands to eliminate the electoral college, for example, or have a direct vote for president -- which would both strengthen the position of the presidency.
It also means providing confidence and enthusiasm for all those fighting. There is great pressure now to condemn people of the U.S. for Trump's election, to brand them as racist and reactionary while also promoting the notion that it is Trump and the U.S. state that decide what takes place and we can only react. We sent a New Year's greeting that emphasized that it is the people who are the makers of history, and the resistance is scoring success, that we in the U.S. can take pride in the resistance that has been organized, the red line against genocide and stepping up the fight for rights. We decide how to organize, not Trump.
The response was positive. People very much appreciate lifting this negative pressure and an upbeat and positive stand. They spoke of various ways to join the organizing. This small example speaks to the significance of our role to strengthen the defiance against U.S. dictate and demands and pursue our own agenda that is anti-war, pro-social and for empowerment of the people.
Demonstration
in Chicago November 6, 2024, right after U.S. election expresses
people's determination to speak in their own name and organize for
their own agenda of empowerment and rights.
This article was published in
Volume 55 Number 1 - January 6, 2025
Article Link:
https://cpcml.ca/Tmlm2025/Articles/TS55013.HTM
Website: www.cpcml.ca Email: editor@cpcml.ca