Repeated Failure of Attempts to "Make Sure Ukraine Prevails"
In what media labelled "a bad omen for Zelensky," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made "a surprise visit" to Kyiv May 14 to 15. The visit took place just as the Ukrainian armed forces are on the retreat in Kharkiv and Donetsk. The U.S. State Department press releases had very little to say about the actual substance of discussions Blinken had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other government officials, while Russian analysts noted that Blinken's visit coincided with the expiration of Zelensky's presidential term. No new elections are currently scheduled in Ukraine, however under the Ukrainian Constitution the president's tenure is limited to five years, to be extended only through nationwide elections.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also went to Kyiv at the end of April. Media reports are all talking about the defeats and challenges Ukrainian forces are experiencing along the entire battle front, but especially in the Kharkiv region. A top Ukrainian general responsible for defences, who is said to have been swamped by a surprise Russian offensive into the northeastern Kharkiv region, was removed from his post on May 13, "as senior Kyiv officials vowed masses of men and weapons were deploying to contain the Kremlin success. Kyiv says it's throwing thousands of veteran reserve troops led by a top general into battle in a bid to contain the most successful Russian land grab since the early days of the war," one news agency reports.
On May 13 at NATO's 2024 Youth Summit, Stoltenberg spoke about NATO's role in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war. "The first thing I will say is that first of all, you need to ensure that Ukraine prevails. Because unless Ukraine prevails, there's nothing to reconstruct in the free and independent Ukraine," NATO reported on X. It appears that everything Stoltenberg spoke of was qualified by statements about the immediate task facing NATO being to "ensure Ukraine prevails."
The U.S. State Department did publish that Blinken joined on stage a rock band at a Kyiv bar playing and singing "Rockin' in the Free World." It also reported that he gave an optimistic speech at a Kyiv Polytechnic Institute about Ukraine's future in which he elaborated three general themes. First, the U.S. and NATO are determined to provide Ukraine the military hardware, weapons and ammunition it needs to defeat the Russian special operations in Ukraine. "We're helping to ensure that Ukraine has the military that it needs to succeed on the battlefield," he said. Here he also emphasized the significance of the new conscription legislation Ukraine has made law to provide more cannon fodder for the U.S./NATO proxy war. Second, he said the U.S. would ensure that Ukraine's economy "not only survives, but thrives." Finally he spoke of U.S. and EU efforts to "help Ukrainian people fully realize their democratic aspirations" which he acknowledged is a herculean task given that "eight in 10 Ukrainians still believe that there's one set of law for the elites and another for everyone else."
Russian commentators who are not known to comment on Russia's military strategy, said that the aim of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region is to clear a buffer zone to protect the Russian city of Belgorod from further missile attacks from Ukrainian forces. The Russian force is comprised of 30,000 Russian troops. Kharkiv is the second-largest city in Ukraine.
The rapid visits
in succession by NATO Secretary General
Stoltenberg and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken suggests concern by the
U.S. and NATO that their proxy war in Ukraine may be facing a
catastrophic collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces. Former UN weapons
inspector Scott Ritter, also a
former Marine Intelligence Officer, recently explained: "As we speak,
the attritional warfare model has Ukraine losing around 1,500 troops a
day. This number is going up now because Russia's expanded its
operations into the Kharkov region. So, you can expect this number [to]
easily top 2,000 a
day.
"What the Ukrainians have had to do is pull in reserves and take forces out from other fronts, including the Kharkov front and the Odessa front, to come into the battlefield where they've been eliminated, or they've been worn down and there are no replacements ... what's going to happen is Ukraine will be compelled to withdraw reserves from the Kyiv region and from Odessa, to go to Kharkov to fill that gap. While they do that, the Russians will then launch a second major attack somewhere in the Zaporozhye area, and Ukrainians are going to be put to the classic horns of a dilemma where if they go north they lose, they go south they lose, if they stay in the middle they lose -- there's no good option for them." Ritter added that "we will then see the total collapse of the Ukrainian army" and the "rapid withdrawal beyond the Dnepr River" to set up a new defence line. This is something Ritter does not think the Ukrainians will be able to accomplish.
This article was published in
Volume 54 Number 35 - May 2024
Article Link:
https://cpcml.ca/Tmlm2024/Articles/MS54353.HTM
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