U.S. Inability to Predict the Outcome of Their Ukraine Strategy

The U.S. has little ability to predict the outcome of its Ukraine strategy as its various means for doing so no longer function. This includes the inability of its intelligence agencies to accurately assess the situation; its dysfunctional institutions including Congress; whether it can force the NATO members to continue to submit to its dictate and for how long; its inability to assess the mood of the peoples at home and abroad and more. For instance, the U.S., all evidence to the contrary, calculates that it can succeed in using China against Russia or India against China and Russia and all the countries of the Asia-Pacific against China and Russia.

It calculates that whatever incentives it sees fit to offer will keep countries like India and others in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean from pursuing relations with Russia and China. The refusal of many of these countries to submit to the sanctions is evidence of the miscalculation, but the U.S. assumes it will nonetheless prevail. As well, it thinks it can patch up its contradictions with the European Union and contradictions within it and reconcile the peoples of the world to more and more wasteful war spending. It believes its own disinformation about what Russia is doing in Ukraine, which is a serious problem.

War funding and war economies provide enormous wealth to the war oligopolies and financial profiteers, all while the poor get poorer, social spending continues to decline and social programs continue to be gutted and privatized. The most recent war budget of the U.S. provided billions more for the annual Pentagon budget of $782 billion, a 42 per cent increase over last year. The bill also included an additional $13.6 billion for Ukraine, mainly for the deployment of more troops to NATO countries, more weaponry and to enforce sanctions.

The U.S. imperialists think they can overcome all the crises in which the U.S. is mired -- financial, economic, commercial, constitutional as well as social, political and existential -- by fomenting wars abroad, but this has not quelled the threat of violent civil war at home. By strengthening Russian sanctions, the U.S. thinks it can save its financial system from diving into a new crisis even more profound than the last in 2008, which was more profound than the one before. It thinks that by seizing and concentrating Russian real estate and financial assets in the hands of the narrow private interests it serves, against others which will fight this tooth and nail, its crises will be resolved. Foolish indeed, and dangerous. Real problems require solutions which befit the problems, not a desperation to dominate and control the world which merely threatens yet greater war and destruction, exacerbating all the problems.

By deploying more U.S. troops in European countries and forcing those countries to increase spending on weapons and war-related materiel for the benefit of the war profiteers, the U.S. thinks it can unite NATO and its military and civilian bureaucracy at home. It thinks this will quell the conflicts between contending private interests within the United States itself.

What is the quid pro quo for those deals, the masses of people in the U.S. and other countries are asking themselves. The people in the U.S. continue to fight for equality and accountability, for voting rights, against funding of police violence and the cover-up of police killings, against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Biden's deportation of millions and massive detention of families and other refugees, for the right to health care for all and safe working conditions. These are among the many just claims that the people are entitled to make on the society they depend on for their living.

So too, the people of the NATO countries are not submitting to U.S. demands. The U.S. is forcing them to agree to increase spending on arms and indebt themselves further within the U.S. financial architecture. Whether France and Germany submit to U.S. dictate willingly or unwillingly, the U.S. is using NATO to keep both in check. But the U.S. is already having trouble achieving this, as concerns about the lack of oil and gas supplies increase and millions of Ukrainian refugees flood Europe.

The peoples of Europe and the world are becoming ever more aware that the navies and bombers of the U.S., Britain and other countries, including Canada, are prowling the oceans, engaging in war exercises and brinkmanship in the Asia-Pacific. They are positioning themselves to threaten Russia in the Mediterranean and the Arctic.

All told, the U.S. measures to bring the entire world under its control show a country which is not interested in peace, freedom and democracy and which cannot predict outcomes because it is self-serving to the extreme and the world does not conform to its narrative.

This article was published in
Volume 52 Number 4 - April 3, 2022

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