The prediction of Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party strategists that he
could win a majority government by holding the election in September,
and his own opportunism and arrogance in agreeing to call the pandemic
election, causes many to question the Liberals' narcissism and lack of
The fact is that the ruling class's
powers of prediction are zero and have been zero for some time. Polls
are more often than not wrong and many people wonder why. They have
been wrong so often that in this election pollsters often included the
caveat that "if the poll results are accurate," then this or that can
A caveat is a proviso, as in "there
are a number of caveats which concern the validity of the assessment
results." In other words, don't hold us to anything we say.
predictions escape the ruling class, including its intelligence
agencies, is because the rules and standards which determined how a
two-party system of government would function no longer exist. Since
1993, the equilibrium in the Parliament is a thing of the past. No
longer can it be claimed that Canadians are represented by either the
party in power or the party in opposition and that by electing one or
removing another they can hold these parties to account.
the Liberals and Conservatives, supported by other parties, embroiled
Canada in "free trade" on the basis of making Canadian monopolies
number one on the world market, nation-wrecking and the anti-social
agenda became the order of the day. Canada's neo-liberal economy is
such that workers no longer even know who owns the companies they work
for, where decisions are made or who is paying the piper and calling
The parliamentary equilibrium was lost
following the 1993 federal election when the Conservative Party,
despite receiving many votes, won only two seats and the Bloc
Québécois became the Official Opposition. After
that, the Reform Party staged a coup and took over the Conservative
Party setting it on a new virulently anti-national, anti-social path
integrated into the U.S. war machine and rivalries south of the border.
At the same time, the factional fighting within the Liberal Party
increased along with its desperation to cling to power. Since the
sponsorship scandal where the Liberals were caught handing over brown
bags of money to cheat election spending rules, scandal follows scandal
involving money, corruption and schemes to pay the rich. The
politicization of private interests took over -- this refers
to handing over basic functions of the state and decision-making to
narrow private interests such as Deloitte and Touche, KPMG, UBS (which
the Stelco steelworkers referred to as You'll be Sorry when they had
the misfortune to cross paths), SNC-Lavalin and many others.
the Canadian Armed Forces in Afghanistan started handing over their
prisoners of war directly to the United States to be sent to black
sites and tortured without even the Prime Minister of Canada being
informed, it became clear that the Canadian Department of National
Defence was now under the command of U.S. Special Forces. When Jean
Chrétien was Prime Minister he famously gave a definition of
sovereignty according to which a sellout is an expression of
sovereignty if it is we who have decided to sell out. Even that claim
is no longer made. Selling out is just par for the course.
of this meant that the predictability based on the rules which governed
how the democratic institutions functioned became a thing of the past.
No longer could one count on ministers to take responsibility for
misdeeds in their departments or which took place on their watch by
resigning. No longer could one count on a Prime Minister to abide by
the recommendations of a parliamentary committee such as on electoral
reform. No longer would conflict of interest rules mean that those in
government and the civil service would not be corrupt.
private interests take over decision-making and government, then their
striving for control means anything goes so long as they have the power
to get away with it. Everyone and everything become disposable.
Trudeau's "gamble" in calling the election was all about
putting the narrow private greenwashing interests in command of the
public purse. These are the interests which seek financing for the
infrastructure projects which serve them and their need to modernize
strategic industries involved in production, communications,
transportation and resource extraction linked in one way or the other
with U.S. imperialist war.
These narrow private
interests are organized as oligopolies -- behemoth companies that form
cartels and coalitions to influence the decisions taken at every level
and which strike while the iron is hot to make a killing. They do not
give a damn about people or nations, or nation-building or the social
and natural environment. It is all about controlling the new
technologies and space.
There can be no
predictability when this is the case because everything is carried out
by narrow private interests and their handmaidens in government. The
rules are declared by them and broken by them as they see fit.
Only the people's
forces have an interest in bringing new forms into being which empower
them. Only then can predictability once again become a feature of life
which people require to have stability and security for
themselves and their families. To participate in arriving at the
decisions which affect our lives is a human right because only then can
one control a situation by monitoring the results of decisions, taking
corrective measures when problems arise in their implementation or if
wrong decisions are taken and so on.
the pundits, Trudeau's "gamble" in calling this pandemic election did
not pan out but he retained power so it is not all bad. It is far more
than that. The failure to predict outcomes is one feature of the crisis
of what are called the democratic institutions which reveals the need
for democratic renewal which empowers the people.
This article was published in
Volume 51 Number 10 - October 10, 2021