Election Results

On October 6, the Liberal Party of Ontario led by Dalton McGuinty won the 40th Ontario General election with 53 of Ontario's 107 seats, one seat short of a majority government and 19 less than in the 2007 election. The Conservatives won 37 seats, 11 more than in 2007 and the NDP won 17 seats, seven more than in the 2007 election.

According to an Elections Ontario media release, the turnout was the lowest in Ontario history with 49.02 per cent of eligible voters casting a ballot, down from the 52.1 per cent of eligible voters who cast a ballot in the 2007 election. Of the votes cast, the Liberals received 37.6 per cent, the Conservatives 35.4 per cent and the NDP 22 per cent.

Preliminary figures also indicate that of the approximately 8,500,000 total eligible voters, 1,541,600 cast a ballot for the Liberals. This means that McGuinty's government has been re-elected with votes from just 18 per cent of Ontario electors.

This is quite a devastating result. Despite this, as if there is nothing amiss when a government is elected by only 18 per cent of the eligible vote, all the vested interests are carrying on business as usual. Their verdict is that McGuinty received a "quasi majority" and has a "mandate" from the Ontario electorate to form the government. We are told that the message from the electorate is they want a party which governs "from the centre" and that "Ontario voters rejected the prospect of a full right-leaning slate at all three levels of government."

Tim Harper of the Toronto Star claims that "With Mayor Rob Ford's popularity in freefall since the day Harper made his infamous hat trick call at the Ford family barbecue last August, the prospects of that trifecta suddenly didn't look good to Torontonians."

The Star writer goes on to claim that "the renewed mandate for Liberals in Ontario does not save the federal party, but had McGuinty lost Thursday, more dirt would have been gleefully bulldozed on a federal Liberal grave by the media and opponents. It gives the party brand credibility -- and maybe a bit more bench strength in 2015 when Canadians next go to the polls in a federal election."

Other explanations include saying that McGuinty won a vote of confidence for his "sound economic stewardship."

There is also an opinion that Hudak didn't win due to his lack of experience and clumsiness in raising and/or handling various controversial issues.

About the improved showing of the NDP, the fact that it increased its seats from ten to 17 is presented as some sort of failure, not a success. Some reports speak about the failure of voters to come under the sway of a "halo effect" of a concocted Jackamania of their own making. First, they concocted a scenario for the Ontario election that it would be a repeat of the federal election -- a Harper majority with an NDP opposition. Once the unfolding events exposed the bankruptcy of their scenario, they then shot it down. As Tim Harper wrote in the Star: "For federal New Democrats, Thursday night's results were a hint of reality. Although leader Andrea Horwath improved her party's standing in the legislature, the results had to be a disappointment. The 'Orange Crush' under the late Jack Layton ran into strong headwinds in Ontario in May. Now it appears the halo effect in a campaign which started right after his state funeral never materialized."

As for the prospects facing Ontario under a McGuinty government, various pundits and newspapers give the following opinions and advice:

- According to the Star's Queen's Park columnist Martin Regg Cohn, "We may also see a tougher McGuinty taking aim at the federal government, pushing harder on his agenda to achieve greater fairness for Ontario taxpayers who can no longer afford to prop up an outdated equalization formula as disproportionately as the province has in the past. His crusade to gain greater fiscal fairness for Ontario has never gained much traction before, but it is a theme he is likely to push even harder in pursuit of a 10-year health funding deal with Ottawa -- especially given the pressures on the provincial health budget. [...]

"And we can expect to see a disciplined McGuinty. Even his political opponents concede he has shown no sign of fatigue after eight years in power and 15 years as Liberal leader. His advisers like to boast that he still has the fire in his belly, and there is no evidence that it is fading. [...]"

A McGuinty government will play tough, says the Star's Cohn. "The Liberals came within a hair of winning a majority, and they can be expected (like others before them in recent times) to govern as if they had one. The narrow result will leave them in no mood to accept opposition demands on major policies or fiscal matters.

"Even if the New Democrats had more leverage with which to wield the balance of power, the rules of the game have changed in recent years. Minority governments aren't what they used to be.

"There will be fierce political battles ahead -- especially on the HST and corporate taxation. There will be a rough ride on health care and government restraint as the government struggles to rein in its deficit.

"After eight years as premier, Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty is not about to embark on a spending binge to secure NDP support. He won't because he can't -- the treasury is tapped out already. [...]

"McGuinty has already signalled he won't play by the old rules (and the formal accord) that defined the 1985-87 Liberal government, propped up by then-NDP leader Bob Rae."

"No accord, no coalition, no entente, no agreement -- formal or informal -- or any other linkage of any kind," the Star quoted McGuinty saying toward the end of the campaign with respect to the prospect of a minority government. The item continues:

"Outside events may force their hand more than any preconceived battle plan. And the biggest unforeseen event could be an economic storm that washes over Ontario's shores, playing to McGuinty's strength as a tested steward during the last economic downturn.

"There will be other battles ahead, notably on changing the way the government delivers services -- including health. A commission headed by straight-talking economist Don Drummond is due to deliver its report this fall, and it will paint a gloomy picture of the challenges ahead. 'Whoever forms the government on Oct. 7 is going to find themselves in a deep fiscal hole,' Drummond told me during the summer lull while the politicians were making their promises on the campaign trail. 'The public, certainly, doesn't completely understand it, and I don't know whether the political parties completely understand it.'"

In a post-election editorial, the Globe and Mail writes, "The Liberals must now urgently address the twin challenges of an economic downturn and a large deficit."

Regarding the role that Horwath and the NDP might play, the Globe tells us that government intervention in the economy "is not in the Ontario mainstream, and if she hopes to exert influence in the legislature, Ms. Horwath will need to begin some ideological renewal within her party."

The Globe gives these final words of advice:

"The Liberals' mandate at Queen's Park is tenuous. Mr. McGuinty will need to exercise some new political skills to renew his cabinet and hold on to power. With bold steps to reduce public-sector spending, continued reforms in health care and narrow, targeted interventions in education, the Liberals can lead Ontario through the troubled times to come."

As for Conservative Leader Tim Hudak, referring to the Liberals' minority status, he said, "It is very clear the people of Ontario have sent a strong message that they want a change in direction." They "have put Dalton McGuinty on a much shorter leash," he added.

Dalton McGuinty, in his "victory speech" at the Ottawa Fairmont Hotel, declared, "We succeeded in our goal of electing an experienced Liberal government. It's time to move forward, together."

In this way, an impression is created that now the people have spoken and that is that, they have no further role to play in how this province is governed for at least the next four years. Unless of course, McGuinty fails to attract an NDPer or PC with a seat in the cabinet in which case the scenario changes and the prospects of wheeling and dealing or refusing to wheel and deal to avert a non-confidence motion take over.

The important thing is for the workers and people of Ontario to not entrust their fate to a government over whose agenda they exercise no control. They can hold this government to account so long as they keep pushing their own agenda for a new direction for Ontario and keep arguing it out, letting the Liberal agenda and that of all others reveal themselves.They can do this by putting those agendas and whom they serve in context and opposing the media's disinformation about the government's agenda and its silence on the workers' real working and living conditions, demands and concerns.

Ontario Political Forum will continue to deal with these matters of great concern with the aim of involving the workers and their allies in discussion on how to provide the problems they face with solutions.

Maps of Election Results

Blue corresponds to ridings held by PCs, orange: NDP; red: Liberal. Click images to enlarge. (Globe and Mail)

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