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January XX, 2010 - No. 301
U.S. and NATO Out of Afghanistan and
Pakistan!
• CIA Agents
Assassinated in Afghanistan Worked for "Contractor" Active in
Venezuela, Cuba
- Eva Golinger, Postcards from the Revolution
• U.S. Spies Walked into al-Qaeda's Trap
- Syed Saleem Shahzad, Asia Times Online
• Afghan Death Toll More Than Doubles in 2009
• More than 700 Pakistani Civilians Killed in
U.S. Drone Strikes
• State of the
U.S. Military
• U.S. Military
Eyes Guam
Guantánamo
• Obama Misses the Mark to Close Prison by
January
Iran
• U.S. Intelligence Found Nuke Document Was
Forged
- Gareth Porter, InterPress Service
CIA Agents Assassinated in Afghanistan Worked for
"Contractor" Active in Venezuela, Cuba
- Eva Golinger, Postcards from the
Revolution, January 3, 2009 -
At least eight U.S. citizens were killed on a CIA
operations base in Afghanistan this past Wednesday, December 30. A
suicide bomber infiltrated Forward Operating Base Chapman located in
the eastern province of Khost, which was a CIA center of operations and
surveillance. Official sources in Washington
have confirmed that the eight dead were all civilian employees and CIA
contractors.
Fifteen days ago, five U.S. citizens working for a U.S.
government contractor, Development Alternatives, Inc. (DAI), were also
killed in an explosion at the U.S. Agency for International Development
(USAID) office in Gardez. That same day, another bomb exploded outside
the DAI offices in Kabul,
although no serious injuries resulted.
The December 15 incident received little attention,
although it occurred just days after the detention of a DAI employee in
Cuba, accused of subversion and distribution of illegal materials to
counterrevolutionary groups. President and CEO of DAI, Jim Boomgard,
issued a declaoration on December 14
regarding the detention of a subcontractor from his company in Cuba,
confirming that, "the detained individual was an employee of a program
subcontractor, which was implementing a competitively issued
subcontract to assist Cuban civil society organizations." The statement
also emphasized the "new program"
DAI is managing for the U.S. government in Cuba, the "Cuba Democracy
and Contingency Planning Program." DAI was awarded a $40 million USD
contract in 2008 to help the U.S. government "support the peaceful
activities of a broad range of nonviolent organizations through
competitively awarded grants and
subcontracts" in Cuba.
On December 15, DAI published a press release mourning
"project personnel killed in Afghanistan." "DAI is deeply saddened to
report the deaths of five staff associated with our projects in
Afghanistan On December 15, five employees of DAI's security
subcontractor were killed by an explosion in
the Gardez office of the Local Governance and Community Development
(LGCD) Program, a USAID project implemented by DAI."
DAI also runs a program in Khost where the December 30
suicide bombing occurred, although it has yet to be confirmed if the
eight U.S. citizens killed were working for the major U.S. government
contractor. From the operations base in Khost, the CIA remotely
controls its selective assassination
program against alleged Al Qaeda members in Pakistan and Afghanistan
using drone (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) Predator planes. A high-level
USAID official confirmed two weeks ago that the CIA uses USAID's name
to issue contracts and funding to third parties in order to provide
cover for clandestine operations.
The official, a veteran of the U.S. government agency, stated that the
CIA issues such contracts without USAID's full knowledge.
Since June 2002, USAID has maintained an Office for
Transition Initiatives (OTI) in Venezuela, through which it has
channeled more than $50 million USD to groups and individuals opposed
to President Hugo Chávez. The same contractor active in
Afghanistan and connected with the CIA, Development
Alternatives Inc. (DAI), was awarded a multi-million dollar budget from
USAID in Venezuela to "assist civil society and the transition to
democracy." More than two thousand documents partially declassified
from USAID regarding the agency's activities in Venezuela reveal the
relationship between DAI and sectors
of the Venezuelan opposition that have actively been involved in coup
d'etats, violent demonstrations and other destabilization attempts
against President Chávez.
In Bolivia, USAID was expelled this year from two
municipalities, Chapare and El Alto, after being accused of
interventionism. In September 2009, President Evo Morales announced the
termination of an official agreement with USAID allowing its operations
in Bolivia, based on substantial evidence
documenting the agency's funding of violent separtist groups seeking to
destabilize the country.
In 2005, USAID was also expelled from Eritrea and
accused of being a "neo-colonialist" agency. Ethiopia, Russia and
Belarus have ordered the expulsion of USAID and its contractors during
the last five years.
Development Alternatives, Inc. is one of the largest
U.S. government contractors in the world. The company, with
headquarters in Bethesda, MD, presently has a $50 million contract with
USAID for operations in Afghanistan. In Latin America, DAI has
operations and field offices in Bolivia, Brazil,
Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
This year, USAID/DAI's budget in Venezuela nears $15
million USD and its programs are oriented towards strengthening
opposition parties, candidates and campaigns for the 2010 legislative
elections. Just two weeks ago, President Chávez also denounced
the illegal presence of U.S. drone planes in
Venezuelan airspace.
U.S. Spies Walked into al-Qaeda's Trap
- Syed Saleem Shahzad*, Asia Times
Online, January 5, 2009 -
The suicide attack on the United States Central
Intelligence Agency's (CIA's) forward operating base of Chapman in the
Afghan province of Khost last week was planned in the Pakistani tribal
area of North Waziristan.
The attacker -- a handpicked plant in the Afghan
National Army (ANA) -- detonated his explosive vest in a gym at the
base, killing seven agents, including the station chief, and wounding
six. The base was officially for civilians involved in reconstruction.
The plan was executed following several weeks of
preparation by al-Qaeda's Lashkar al-Zil (Shadow Army), Asia Times
Online has learned. This was after Lashkar al-Zil's intelligence
outfit informed its chief commander, Ilyas Kashmiri, that the CIA
planned to broaden the monitoring
of the possible movement of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his
deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Well-connected sources in militant camps say that
Lashkar al-Zil had become aware of the CIA's escalation of intelligence
activities to gather information on high-value targets for U.S. drone
attacks. It emerged that tribesmen from Shawal and Datta Khel, in
Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area,
had been invited by U.S. operatives, through middlemen, to Khost, where
the operatives tried to acquire information on al-Qaeda leaders. Such
activities have been undertaken in the past, but this time they were
somewhat different.
"This time there was clearly an obsession to hunt down
something big in North Waziristan. But in this obsession, they
[operatives] blundered and exposed the undercover CIA facility," a
senior leader in al-Qaeda's 313 Brigade said. The brigade, led by Ilyas
Kashmiri, comprises jihadis with extensive
experience in Pakistan's Kashmir struggle with India.
Once it became clear that efforts to track down al-Qaeda
were being stepped up and that the base in Khost was being extensively
used by the CIA, the Lashkar al-Zil (Brigade 055) moved into top gear.
It is the soul of al-Qaeda, having being involved in several events
since the September 11, 2001,
attacks on the U.S. Under the command of Ilyas Kashmiri, its
intelligence network's coordination with its special guerrilla action
force has changed the dynamics of the Afghan war theater. Instead of
traditional guerrilla warfare in which the Taliban have taken most of
the casualties, the brigade has resorted to special
operations, the one on the CIA base being the latest and one of the
most successful.
Lashkar al-Zil comprises the Pakistani Taliban, 313
Brigade, the Afghan Taliban, Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan and former Iraqi
Republican Guards. It has taken on special significance since the U.S.
announcement of a 30,000 troop surge in Afghanistan, due to kick into
action this week.
Leaders of the Lashkar al-Zil now knew that CIA
operatives were trying to recruit reliable tribal people from
Afghanistan so that the latter could develop an effective intelligence
network along the border with North Waziristan's Shawal and Datta Khel
regions, where high-profile al-Qaeda leaders often
move around.
Laskhar al-Zil then laid its trap.
Over the past months, using connections in tribal
structures and ties with former commanders of the Taliban and the
Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan, the militants have planted a large number of
men in the ANA.
One of these plants, an officer, was now called into
action. He contacted U.S. personnel in Khost and told them he was
linked to a network in the tribal areas and that he had information on
where al-Qaeda would hold its shura (council) in North Waziristan and
on the movement of al-Qaeda leaders.
The ANA officer was immediately invited to the CIA base
in Khost to finalize a joint operation of Predator drones and ground
personnel against these targets.
Once inside, he set off his bomb, with deadly results.
"It's a devastating blow," Times Online quoted
Michael Scheuer as saying. "[Among others] we lost an agent with 14
years' experience in Afghanistan." Scheuer is a former head of Alec
Station, the unit created to monitor bin Laden five years before the
attacks of September 11.
Unlike the Taliban's mostly rag-tag army, Laskhar al-Zil
is a sophisticated unit, with modern equipment such as night-vision
technology, the latest light weapons and finely honed guerrilla
tactics. It has a well-funded intelligence department, much like the
Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan had during the resistance
against the Soviets in the 1980s when it had access to advance
information on the movement of the Red Army.
However, Laskhar al-Zil is one step ahead of the Hezb's
former intelligence outfit in that it has been able to plant men in the
ANA, and these "soldiers" are now at the forefront of al-Qaeda-led
sabotage activities in Afghanistan.
In addition, a large number of senior government
officials both in the capital, Kabul, and in the provinces are
sympathetic to the Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan, and, by extension, to the
Taliban. Similarly, several former top Taliban commanders have been
given responsibilities by the central government
in district areas, and as the insurgency has grown, these former
militants have been increasingly useful to the Taliban-led insurgency.
In sum, the U.S. troop surge, coupled with increased
U.S. efforts to track down al-Qaeda, has resulted in a shift in
southeastern Afghanistan. There has been hardly any uprising against
foreign troops in which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
could hit the Taliban hard. The insurgents
now select specific targets for the most effective outcome, such as the
spy base in Khost -- it took just one insurgent's life for the
"devastating" result.
Consequently, for the first time in the many years that
Afghanistan has been at war, the winter season is hot. Last October,
the U.S. withdrew its troops from its four key bases in Nuristan, on
the border with Pakistan, leaving the northeastern province as a safe
haven for the Taliban, under the command
of Qari Ziaur Rahman. Kurangal Valley in Kunar province is heavily
under siege and Taliban attacks on U.S. bases there could see U.S.
forces pulling back from Kunar as well.
And in the meantime, Lashkar al-Zil can be expected to
be planning more strikes of its own.
Afghan Death Toll More Than Doubles in 2009
According to the United Nations mission in Afghanistan,
2,021 Afghan civilians were killed in the first 10 months of the year,
nearly 1,400 of them by insurgents and 465 by U.S. and other
pro-government forces. This is in addition to 1,838 killed during the
same period in 2008.
According to the Associated Press, based on daily
reports from NATO's International Security Assistance Force, "U.S.
military deaths in Afghanistan doubled in 2009 compared with a year ago
as 30,000 additional troops began pouring in for a stepped-up offensive
and the Taliban fought back with
powerful improvised bombs."
It says 304 American service members had died as of
December 30, up from 151 in 2008. The count does not include eight U.S.
civilians killed by a suicide bomber on a base in Khost on December 31.
Of the U.S. fatalities in 2009, 129 -- or more than 40 percent -- were
caused by improvised explosive
devices (IEDs). The homemade bombs are hidden along the roadside or
near buildings and detonated by remote control or triggered when troops
cross simple pressure plates.
AP reports that the annual death toll of international
troops, including U.S. forces, surpassed 500 for the first time in the
war. The total in 2009 was 502 compared with 286 in 2008, according to
AP's count. British troops suffered 107 deaths and Canada lost 32
troops, including the four who died December
31 when their vehicle was blown up by a roadside bomb. Other countries
in the international military operation lost a total of 59 service
members, AP says.
In Iraq, 152 American service members died, down from
314 a year earlier, according to figures compiled by AP from Defense
Department information.
The sharply rising death toll in Afghanistan was an
obstacle for President Barack Obama as he decided in November to send
more forces to the war, which is increasingly unpopular in both America
and Europe.
More than 700 Pakistani Civilians Killed
in U.S. Drone Strikes
Of the 44 strikes carried out by US drones, known as
"Predators," in the tribal areas of Pakistan over the past 12 months,
only five were able to hit their actual targets, killing five key
Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders, but at the cost of more than 700 innocent
civilians.
According to the statistics compiled by Pakistani
authorities, the Afghanistan-based U.S. drones killed 708 people in 44
Predator attacks targeting the tribal areas between January 1 and
December 31, 2009.
For each Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorist killed by U.S.
drones, 140 innocent Pakistanis also died. More than 90 percent of
those killed in the deadly missile strikes were civilians, according to
authorities.
The percentage of successful drone hits during 2009 was
barely 11 per cent. On average, 58 civilians were killed in these
attacks every month, 12 persons every week and almost two people every
day. Most of the attacks were carried out on the basis of human
intelligence, reportedly provided by the
Pakistani and Afghan tribesmen, who are spying for the U.S.-led forces
in Afghanistan.
Of the five "successful" Predator attacks carried out in
2009, the first one came on January 1, which reportedly killed two
senior al-Qaeda leaders -- Usama al-Kin and Sheikh Ahmed Salim -- both
wanted by the American Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Kin was
the chief operational commander
of Al-Qaeda in Pakistan and had replaced Abu Faraj Al Libi after his
arrest in 2004.
The second one was conducted on August 5 in South
Waziristan that killed the most wanted fugitive chief of the
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan Baitullah Mehsud along with his wife.
The U.S. State Department had announced a $5 million
bounty for information leading to Baitullah, making him the only
Pakistani fugitive with a bounties separately announced by Pakistan and
the U.S.
State of the U.S. Military
U.S. army soldiers are refusing to serve at the highest
rate since 1980, with an 80 per cent increase in desertions since the
invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Associated Press reported. Sarah Lazare,
a GI resistance organizer with Dialogues against Militarism and Courage
to Resist says these troops refuse deployment
for a variety of reasons: some because they ethically oppose the wars,
some because they have had a negative experience with the military, and
some because they cannot psychologically survive another deployment,
having fallen victim to what has been termed "Broken Joe" syndrome.
According to Lazare:
Over 150 GIs have publicly refused service and spoken
out against the wars, all risking prison and some serving long
sentences, and an estimated 250 US war resisters are currently taking
refuge in Canada.
This resistance includes two Fort Hood, Texas, soldiers,
Victor Agosto and Travis Bishop, who publicly resisted deployment to
Afghanistan this year, facing prison sentences as a result, with Bishop
still currently detained.
"There is no way I will deploy to Afghanistan," wrote
Agosto, upon refusing his service last May. "The occupation is immoral
and unjust."
Within the US military, GI resisters and anti-war
veterans have organised through broad networks of veteran and civilian
alliances, as well as through IVAW, comprised of Iraq and Afghanistan
veterans.
This organisation, which is over 1,700 strong, with
members across the world, including active-duty members on military
bases, is opposed to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and openly
supports GI resistance.
"Iraq Veterans Against the War calls on Obama to end the
war in Afghanistan (and Iraq) by withdrawing troops immediately and
unconditionally," wrote Jose Vasquez, the executive director of IVAW,
in a December 2 open letter.
"It's not time for our brothers and sisters in arms to
go to Afghanistan. It's time for them to come home."
Lazare points out that the U.S. military is
"overstretched and exhausted."
Many of those being deployed have already faced
multiple deployments to combat zones: the 101st Airborne Division,
which will be deployed to Afghanistan in early 2010, faces its fifth
combat tour since 2002.
"They are just going to start moving the soldiers who
already served in Iraq to Afghanistan, just like they shifted me from
one war to the next," said Eddie Falcon, a member of Iraq Veterans
Against the War (IVAW), who served in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"Soldiers are going to start coming back with
Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), missing limbs, problems with
alcohol, and depression."
Many of these troops are still suffering the mental and
physical fallout from previous deployments.
Rates of PTSD and traumatic brain injury among troops
deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan have been disproportionately high,
with a third of returning troops reporting mental problems and 18.5 per
cent of all returning service members battling either PTSD or
depression, according to a study by the
Rand Corporation.
Marine suicides doubled between 2006 and 2007, and army
suicides are at the highest rate since records were kept in 1980.
U.S. Military Eyes Guam
The United States plans to fortify Guam, upgrading its
military base on the island into a strategic staging post that would
allow rapid access to potential flashpoints in the Pacific region.
More troops, including 9,182 Marines, army soldiers and
their dependents from Okinawa, Japan, will be relocated to this island,
while more than 9,000 transient troops, mainly from the navy's carrier
strike group, will also be based here.
The "overarching purpose" of beefing up Guam as a
military fortress is "to provide mutual defense, deter aggression, and
dissuade coercion in the Western Pacific Region, according to a draft
impact report recently released by the U.S. Defense Department.
The proposed buildup would allow U.S. military forces to
respond to regional threats and contingencies in a "flexible" and
"timely manner" as they work to "defend U.S., Japan and allied
interests," the study says.
"Moving these forces to Guam would place them on the
furthest forward element of sovereign U.S. territory in the Pacific,
thereby maximizing their freedom of action," it says.
According to the report, the United States envisions
Guam as a "local command and control structure" manned, equipped,
trained, and sustained by a modern logistics infrastructure.
The relocation and buildup cost, including expansion of
infrastructure needed to maintain a permanent base for Marines and U.S.
Army troops on Guam and Tinian, an island 160 kilometers to the
northeast, is pegged at $12 billion.
Japan has agreed to chip in $6.09 billion of the total.
The plan would entail "increased operational
activities," more frequent berthing by aircraft carriers and other
warships, building aviation training ranges and upgrading of harbors,
wharves and ports.
The existing Andersen Air Force Base on Guam would be
expanded to include the air elements of the Marines. A new Marine base
would be built "right next door," the study says.
Various firing ranges would be built to meet the various
training requirements of a larger military contingent.
The U.S. also plans to expand its live fire training
ranges in Tinian where about 200 or more Marines could "realistically
train" with their weapons and equipment "without restrictions." Also on
the drawing board is the building of a deep-draft wharf at Guam's Apra
Harbor to support nuclear-powered
aircraft carriers transiting through the area.
A U.S. Army "Air and Missile Defense Task Force" is also
proposed for Guam to protect the island and U.S. forces there against
the threat of harm from ballistic missile attacks.
Weapons emplacement sites would be constructed to
accommodate the "Terminal High Altitude Area Defense" system, which is
designed to intercept missiles during late mid-course or final stage
flight.
Other emplacement sites would accommodate Patriot
missiles, which are designed to strike threat aircraft, unmanned aerial
vehicles, and cruise missiles just before impact.
The U.S military is beefing up its presence in Guam
after U.S. allies in the Pacific -- the Philippines, Thailand,
Australia, South Korea and Singapore -- turned down U.S. requests for
permanent basing of U.S. troops on their soil.
Already concerns are being raised over plans to
transform Guam into "a multi-service military base." "Some of the areas
that they're planning to convert into firing ranges include pristine
limestone forested areas that will require some clearing of native
forest trees," Jeffrey Quitugua, a biologist, told
Kyodo News.
Judith Guthertz, a senator in the Guam Legislature who
chairs the military buildup committee, is concerned over "land
condemnation or land takings." "That is a very emotional issue for the
people of Guam because of what happened after World War II where the
federal government condemned so
much land on Guam. We don't want a repeat of that," she told Kyodo News
in an interview.
Henry Simpson, general manager of Guam Racing
Federation, said the U.S. military aims to take his race track without
even consulting him. "They want to run over our land," he said.
But Paul Shintaku, executive director of the Guam
Buildup Office, in the Guam governor's office, said public
consultations are ongoing, with a series of fora scheduled in January
to enlighten the public on the plan.
Guam's government also scoffs at fears the plan will
make the island prone to attacks by U.S. enemies.
"I don't see it as painting a bigger red target on us,"
Shintaku's deputy Nora Camacho said. "Of course we have that red light,
that red circle around us...but there's a deterrence."
Guantanamo
Obama Misses the Mark to Close Prison by January
U.S. President Barack Obama's plan to shut down the
Guantanamo prison facility -- located in militarily occupied Cuban
territory -- by January was dealt a major blow on Capitol Hill.
Lawmakers refused to earmark funds in a military spending bill Congress
approved December 19 that would have allowed the
federal government to purchase a near-empty maximum security prison in
Illinois to house some detainees.
As a result, Guantanamo will not be shut down until 2011
at the earliest, according to a report published in the New York
Times. Obama pledged to close the detention center by January 22,
2010 -- but he acknowledged in November he would miss that deadline,
which he set shortly after
being sworn in as president.
Closing Guantanamo is "just technically hard," Obama
said in an interview with Fox News last month. Last week, Truthout news
service reported that Obama directed Attorney General Eric Holder to
"acquire and activate" as "expeditiously as possible" the Thomson
Correctional Center in Thomson,
Illinois.
Obama also called upon Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
to work with Holder to prepare Thomson "for secure housing of
[Guantanamo] detainees who have been or will be designated for
relocation, and shall relocate such detainees to" the Illinois prison.
The Times reported that "officials estimated
that it could take 8 to 10 months to install new fencing, towers,
cameras and other security upgrades before any transfers take place.
Such construction cannot begin until the federal government buys the
prison from the State of Illinois."
The federal Bureau of Prisons does not have enough money
to pay Illinois for the center, which would cost about $150 million.
Several weeks ago, the White House approached the House Appropriations
Committee and floated the idea of adding about $200 million for the
project to the military spending
bill for the 2010 fiscal year, according to administration and
Congressional officials. Obama's plan to close Guantanamo, which the
American Civil Liberties Union has called the symbol of "American
lawlessness and human rights violations," within a year after being
sworn into office proved to be much more difficult
than he or his administration had anticipated and is believed to have
played a major role in the resignation of White House Counsel Greg
Craig.
Iran
U.S. Intelligence Found Nuke Document Was Forged
- Gareth Porter*, InterPress Service,
December 28, 2009 -
U.S. intelligence has concluded that the document
published recently by the Times of London, which purportedly
describes an Iranian plan to do experiments on what the newspaper
described as a "neutron initiator" for an atomic weapon, is a
fabrication, according to a former Central Intelligence Agency
official.
Philip Giraldi, who was a CIA counterterrorism official
from 1976 to 1992, told IPS that intelligence sources say that the
United States had nothing to do with forging the document, and that
Israel is the primary suspect. The sources do not rule out a British
role in the fabrication, however.
The Times of London story published Dec. 14
did not identify the source of the document. But it quoted "an Asian
intelligence source" -- a term some news media have used for Israeli
intelligence officials -- as confirming that his government believes
Iran was working on a neutron initiator
as recently as 2007.
The story of the purported Iranian document prompted a
new round of expressions of U.S. and European support for tougher
sanctions against Iran and reminders of Israel's threats to attack
Iranian nuclear programme targets if diplomacy fails.
U.S. news media reporting has left the impression that
U.S. intelligence analysts have not made up their mind about the
document's authenticity, although it has been widely reported that they
have now had a full year to assess the issue.
Giraldi's intelligence sources did not reveal all the
reasons that led analysts to conclude that the purported Iran document
had been fabricated by a foreign intelligence agency. But their
suspicions of fraud were prompted in part by the source of the story,
according to Giraldi.
"The Rupert Murdoch chain has been used extensively to
publish false intelligence from the Israelis and occasionally from the
British government," Giraldi said.
The Times is part of a Murdoch publishing
empire that includes the Sunday Times, Fox News and the New
York Post. All Murdoch-owned news media report on Iran with an
aggressively pro-Israeli slant.
The document itself also had a number of red flags
suggesting possible or likely fraud.
The subject of the two-page document which the Times
published in English translation would be highly classified under any
state's security system. Yet there is no confidentiality marking on the
document, as can be seen from the photograph of the Farsi-language
original published by
the Times.
The absence of security markings has been cited by the
Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali
Asghar Soltanieh, as evidence that the "alleged studies" documents,
which were supposedly purloined from an alleged Iranian nuclear
weapons-related programme early in this
decade, are forgeries.
The document also lacks any information identifying
either the issuing office or the intended recipients. The document
refers cryptically to "the Centre," "the Institute," "the Committee,"
and the "neutron group."
The document's extreme vagueness about the institutions
does not appear to match the concreteness of the plans, which call for
hiring eight individuals for different tasks for very specific numbers
of hours for a four-year time frame.
Including security markings and such identifying
information in a document increases the likelihood of errors that would
give the fraud away.
The absence of any date on the document also conflicts
with the specificity of much of the information. The Times
reported that unidentified "foreign intelligence agencies" had dated
the document to early 2007, but gave no reason for that judgment.
An obvious motive for suggesting the early 2007 date is
that it would discredit the U.S. intelligence community's November 2007
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which concluded that Iran had
discontinued unidentified work on nuclear weapons and had not resumed
it as of the time of the estimate.
Discrediting the NIE has been a major objective of the
Israeli government for the past two years, and the British and French
governments have supported the Israeli effort.
The biggest reason for suspecting that the document is
a fraud is its obvious effort to suggest past Iranian experiments
related to a neutron initiator. After proposing experiments on
detecting pulsed neutrons, the document refers to "locations where such
experiments used to be conducted."
That reference plays to the widespread assumption,
which has been embraced by the International Atomic Energy Agency, that
Iran had carried out experiments with Polonium-210 in the late 1980s,
indicating an interest in neutron initiators. The IAEA referred in
reports from 2004 through 2007 to
its belief that the experiment with Polonium-210 had potential
relevance to making "a neutron initiator in some designs of nuclear
weapons."
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the
political arm of the terrorist organisation Mujahedeen-e Khalq, claimed
in February 2005 that Iran's research with Polonium-210 was continuing
and that it was now close to producing a neutron initiator for a
nuclear weapon.
Sanger and Broad were so convinced that the
Polonium-210 experiments proved Iran's interest in a neutron initiator
that they referred in their story on the leaked document to both the
IAEA reports on the experiments in the late 1980s and the claim by NCRI
of continuing Iranian work on such a nuclear
trigger.
What Sanger and Broad failed to report, however, is
that the IAEA has acknowledged that it was mistaken in its earlier
assessment that the Polonium-210 experiments were related to a neutron
initiator.
After seeing the complete documentation on the original
project, including complete copies of the reactor logbook for the
entire period, the IAEA concluded in its Feb. 22, 2008 report that
Iran's explanations that the Polonium-210 project was fundamental
research with the eventual aim of possible
application to radio isotope batteries was "consistent with the
Agency's findings and with other information available to it."
The IAEA report said the issue of Polonium-210 -- and
thus the earlier suspicion of an Iranian interest in using it as a
neutron initiator for a nuclear weapon -- was now considered "no longer
outstanding."
New York Times reporters David Sanger and
William J. Broad reported U.S. intelligence officials as saying the
intelligence analysts "have yet to authenticate the document." Sanger
and Broad explained the failure to do so, however, as a result of
excessive caution left over from the CIA's
having failed to brand as a fabrication the document purporting to show
an Iraqi effort to buy uranium in Niger.
The Washington Post's Joby Warrick dismissed
the possibility that the document might be found to be fraudulent.
"There is no way to establish the authenticity or original source of
the document...," wrote Warrick.
But the line that the intelligence community had
authenticated it evidently reflected the Barack Obama administration's
desire to avoid undercutting a story that supports its efforts to get
Russian and Chinese support for tougher sanctions against Iran.
This is not the first time that Giraldi has been tipped
off by his intelligence sources on forged documents. Giraldi identified
the individual or office responsible for creating the two most
notorious forged documents in recent U.S. intelligence history.
In 2005, Giraldi identified Michael Ledeen, the extreme
right-wing former consultant to the National Security Council and the
Pentagon, as an author of the fabricated letter purporting to show
Iraqi interest in purchasing uranium from Niger. That letter was used
by the George W. Bush administration
to bolster its false case that Saddam Hussein had an active nuclear
weapons programme.
Giraldi also identified officials in the "Office of
Special Plans" who worked under Undersecretary of Defense for Policy
Douglas Feith as having forged a letter purportedly written by
Hussein's intelligence director, Tahir Jalail Habbush al-Tikriti, to
Hussein himself referring to an Iraqi intelligence
operation to arrange for an unidentified shipment from Niger.
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